Tropical Storm FAY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 4 6 6 24 40 52
TROP DEPRESSION 22 13 12 5 25 19 16
TROPICAL STORM 73 60 53 47 33 24 18
HURRICANE 5 24 29 43 18 17 14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 21 25 32 12 12 8
HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 8 4 3 4
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 2 1 2 2
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 1 X 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 30KT 25KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 2(19) 1(20)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 2(20) 1(21)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 10(25) 6(31) 2(33) X(33)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 7(25) 3(28) 1(29)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAVANNAH GA 34 1 6( 7) 15(22) 16(38) 6(44) 3(47) X(47)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
JACKSONVILLE 34 2 13(15) 23(38) 16(54) 6(60) 2(62) 1(63)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 3(24) 1(25) 1(26)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 11 28(39) 13(52) 7(59) 3(62) 2(64) 1(65)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 2 10(12) 10(22) 5(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ORLANDO FL 34 16 18(34) 9(43) 7(50) 4(54) 1(55) X(55)
ORLANDO FL 50 2 5( 7) 3(10) 4(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17)
ORLANDO FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 17 10(27) 3(30) 3(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT PIERCE FL 50 11 4(15) 3(18) 3(21) X(21) 1(22) X(22)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
W PALM BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MIAMI FL 34 5 4( 9) 5(14) 4(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
MARCO ISLAND 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 2(19) 2(21)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FT MYERS FL 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 3(21) 2(23) 1(24)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
VENICE FL 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 8(19) 4(23) 2(25) 2(27)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
TAMPA FL 34 2 7( 9) 7(16) 13(29) 5(34) 1(35) 2(37)
TAMPA FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 6( 7) 9(16) 17(33) 6(39) 2(41) 1(42)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 16(24) 11(35) 4(39) 2(41)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 18(26) 9(35) 4(39) 2(41)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 10(26) 5(31) 1(32)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 10(23) 4(27) 2(29)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 10(22) 5(27) 2(29)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 3(24) 1(25)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 1(18)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 2(20)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 6(17) 2(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 14 10(24) 7(31) 3(34) 2(36) 1(37) X(37)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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