Tropical Storm IKE

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TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
 
AFTER LOOKING CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC THIS MORNING...IKE HAS
WRAPPED A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER
EXCEPT FOR SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY...
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.
 
IKE CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG WITHIN THE TRADES AT 280/15. THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IKE...STEERING
IT WESTWARD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE COMING DAYS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF THE UKMET...
WHICH CURVES IKE TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 65W IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER
WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS...SHOWING A SLIGHT
SOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS
WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM...
BRINGING IKE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A BIT RESERVED AND SHOW
PEAK INTENSITIES OF 70-80 KT BEFORE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SETS
IN BY 48 HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL IS WELL ABOVE ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE
AND IN GENERAL ITS SOLUTION IS NOT COUNTED AT THIS TIME.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON THAT INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD NOT OCCUR SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 19.2N  46.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N  48.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.3N  51.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N  55.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 21.6N  57.8W    80 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  63.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.5N  69.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  75.0W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB
 
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