Hurricane NORBERT

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14               
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 07 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       3      26
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       1       2       3      17      35
TROPICAL STORM  18      24      23      31      45      61      36
HURRICANE       82      76      76      67      51      19       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       77      60      50      42      37      17       3
HUR CAT 2        4      13      19      18      10       2       X
HUR CAT 3        1       3       6       7       4       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    75KT    80KT    80KT    80KT    70KT    60KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)   4(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   7(20)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   2( 3)  17(20)  21(41)  15(56)   2(58)   X(58)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  11(21)   1(22)   X(22)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)  21(32)   9(41)   1(42)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN