Tropical Depression FOUR
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 3 38 NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 14 26 47 NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 81 66 15 NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE 3 4 1 NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 4 1 NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X 1 X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 20KT NA NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 22 14(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
ST MARKS FL 34 32 11(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
APALACHICOLA 34 47 19(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
APALACHICOLA 50 5 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
APALACHICOLA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 47 12(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 7 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 28 32(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
COLUMBUS GA 34 1 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 21(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
PENSACOLA FL 34 2 26(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
MOBILE AL 34 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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