Tropical Storm DANNY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 2 10 17 25
TROP DEPRESSION 7 7 8 13 22 24 26
TROPICAL STORM 89 78 64 57 51 47 39
HURRICANE 5 15 27 28 17 12 11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 13 22 22 14 9 9
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 4 3 2 1
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 50KT 40KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 1(28)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 11(35) X(35)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 10(36) 1(37)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 6(35) X(35)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 2(43) X(43)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 4(41) X(41)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 1(37) X(37)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 1(44) X(44)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 1(43) X(43)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) X(24) X(24)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 11(11) 22(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: