Hurricane JIMENA

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
 
THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 75-80 KT.  THE
FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER INLAND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HR BEFORE
EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE PACIFIC
WATERS ALONG THE TRACK ARE COLD...AND THE FORECAST VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HR.  THUS...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36-48 HR...AND A REMNANT LOW BY
72 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BUT IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL LIKELY NOT
STAY THERE LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY OF JIMENA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JIMENA
SHOULD DECELERATE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR
SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE BULK
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES JIMENA SLOWLY WESTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC...A MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...NUDGED A LITTLE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.
 
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON.  REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 26.4N 112.3W    75 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N 112.7W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 28.1N 113.3W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 114.2W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.1N 114.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN