Hurricane JIMENA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
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HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 6 49 56
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 13 34 30
TROPICAL STORM X X 1 5 19 17 14
HURRICANE 99 99 99 95 61 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 8 18 12 1 1
HUR CAT 2 X 3 21 25 15 X X
HUR CAT 3 10 29 46 33 23 X X
HUR CAT 4 84 59 22 16 10 X X
HUR CAT 5 6 8 3 3 2 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 125KT 125KT 115KT 95KT 50KT 30KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 31(51) 6(57) 1(58)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) X(26)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 22(22) 46(68) 6(74) 2(76) X(76) 1(77)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 2( 2) 31(33) 6(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 13(13) 47(60) 7(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 46(48) 23(71) 6(77) 1(78) X(78)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 25(69) 3(72) X(72)
LORETO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 20(35) 3(38) X(38)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15)
P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
P PENASCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 7(30) X(30)
HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
HERMOSILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 28(34) 8(42) X(42)
BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17)
BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 29(40) 5(45) X(45)
GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18)
GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 19(35) 4(39) X(39)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12)
HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 10(31) 2(33) X(33)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)
LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) 7(35) 1(36) X(36)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 10 20(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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