Hurricane JIMENA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 33 47 60 66 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 1 25 48 38 29 24 NA
TROPICAL STORM 72 44 19 15 11 10 NA
HURRICANE 28 28 X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 24 21 X X X X NA
HUR CAT 2 3 6 X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 45KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ENSENADA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P ABREOJOS 34 58 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
P ABREOJOS 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P ABREOJOS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LA PAZ 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LORETO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
P PENASCO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HERMOSILLO 34 10 9(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21)
BAHIA KINO 34 35 13(48) 1(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50)
BAHIA KINO 50 3 11(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BAHIA KINO 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 27 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
GUAYMAS 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HUATABAMPO 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LOS MOCHIS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CULICAN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: