Tropical Depression ONE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 3 10 18 19 19 27
TROP DEPRESSION 18 22 35 36 16 15 19
TROPICAL STORM 79 70 51 42 50 48 40
HURRICANE 2 6 4 5 15 19 15
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 5 3 4 11 14 12
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 3 3 2
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 35KT 35KT 45KT 50KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
GFMX 287N 884W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8)
MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 8(29) 2(31) 1(32)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14)
BELIZE 34 1 13(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21)
BELIZE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANAJA 34 10 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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