Hurricane DANIELLE

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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010
 
DANIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE THIS EVENING. A 2148 UTC SSMIS
OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL
TILT...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT ON
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MORE
SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER AND CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND SPIRAL BANDS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80 C. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 4.0/65
KT...RESPECTIVELY AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE NEAR 4.5/77 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 75 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
 
THE HURRICANE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN
10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A WARM OCEAN
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY...OR EVEN
RAPID...INTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THAT WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 285/17. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES NEAR THE AZORES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 15.6N  43.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.7N  45.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.3N  47.5W   100 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 20.1N  49.9W   100 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.2N  52.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  55.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 28.0N  57.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 31.0N  59.0W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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