Hurricane DANIELLE

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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT.
SIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED
70-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB
PRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.
 
DANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE
ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS
EVENING.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION
WITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.
 
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT.  THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.  A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND
FOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE.  THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
PROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 40.9N  50.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 41.9N  47.7W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 43.4N  41.2W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 46.0N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 48.0N  24.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 53.0N  21.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 61.5N  38.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
 
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