Tropical Storm KARL

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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1500 UTC WED SEP 15 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  88.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  88.2W AT 15/1500Z...INLAND
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  87.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N  89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.1N  91.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.9N  93.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.3N  95.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N  98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  88.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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