Tropical Storm KARL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
2100 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 2 11 17 15 30 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 19 18 38 32 12 30 NA
TROPICAL STORM 80 74 47 46 50 34 NA
HURRICANE 1 6 4 5 23 7 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 6 4 5 18 5 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X 4 2 NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 30KT 35KT 55KT 30KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) X(16)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) X(25)
LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) X(33)
TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29)
TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 4(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: