Tropical Depression NINETEEN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
0300 UTC THU OCT 21 2010
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 8 8 8 7 13 21
TROP DEPRESSION 61 49 34 26 19 19 17
TROPICAL STORM 35 41 53 56 53 50 42
HURRICANE 1 2 5 11 20 19 20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 1 4 9 15 14 15
HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 2 3 3 3
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 35KT 40KT 50KT 55KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 6(23)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 17(31) 2(33)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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