Tropical Storm TOMAS

ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010               
2100 UTC THU NOV 04 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       3      12      22      22
TROP DEPRESSION  4       9       4      12      27      33      31
TROPICAL STORM  90      77      51      62      50      40      40
HURRICANE        6      13      44      24      11       6       6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      11      36      19       9       5       5
HUR CAT 2        X       1       5       3       2       1       1
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       2       1       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    60KT    65KT    55KT    40KT    30KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   6(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   8( 8)  48(56)   4(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)  25(25)   4(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   5( 5)  42(47)   4(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  5  30(35)   4(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  8   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LES CAYES      34 26  26(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
LES CAYES      50  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  3  15(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
GONAIVES       34  3  27(30)  14(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
GONAIVES       50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GONAIVES       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   6( 6)  14(20)   2(22)   X(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN                                          
NNNN