Hurricane TOMAS
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2100 UTC FRI NOV 05 2010
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 3 24 28 27
TROP DEPRESSION X X 2 13 36 34 32
TROPICAL STORM 27 14 29 62 35 34 36
HURRICANE 73 86 69 23 5 4 4
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 66 58 50 18 4 3 4
HUR CAT 2 5 20 14 2 1 1 1
HUR CAT 3 1 6 4 2 X X X
HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 75KT 55KT 30KT 25KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GREAT EXUMA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
MAYAGUANA 34 82 5(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
MAYAGUANA 50 20 12(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
MAYAGUANA 64 7 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GRAND TURK 34 72 11(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
GRAND TURK 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GONAIVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PUERTO PLATA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
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FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
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