Tropical Storm CELIA

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THERE IS STILL A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SUGGESTING THAT CELIA IS MAINTAINING ITS
INTENSITY...FOR NOW.  A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND
FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS 35 KT FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES AN INCREASING
MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS...COUPLED
WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR
MASS...SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.  CELIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED FURTHER AND IS NOW ABOUT 250/2. 
STEERING CURRENTS FOR CELIA ARE EXTREMELY WEAK...AND NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THIS SITUATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BLOCK MUCH MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...AND
THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH...BUT BECAUSE THE PREDICTED SPEED OF
MOTION IS SO SLOW...THIS AMOUNTS TO A NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 15.6N 124.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 124.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 15.4N 124.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 15.3N 124.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 15.2N 124.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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