Tropical Storm CELIA
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TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 2 3
TROP DEPRESSION 15 6 2 2 3 9 10
TROPICAL STORM 84 75 40 33 40 48 52
HURRICANE 1 19 58 65 57 41 35
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 17 43 39 38 31 28
HUR CAT 2 X 2 11 17 13 7 5
HUR CAT 3 X X 4 7 5 3 2
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 55KT 70KT 75KT 75KT 70KT 70KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
P ANGEL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13)
CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN
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