Tropical Depression SEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 PM PDT THU AUG 05 2010
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE SMALL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED AND HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
WERE 2.5...WHICH SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE 0000 UTC...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT A PERHAPS CONSERVATIVE 30 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
SMALL CYCLONE VERY WELL AND MANY OF THEM SHOW THE CYCLONE
INTERACTING WITH ITCZ DISTURBANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. 
THIS RESULTS IN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICTING A SLOWER AND
MORE ERRATIC TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAM MEDIUM AND HWRF MODELS THROUGH 72
HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECELERATE.  DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL.
 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THIS IS AT THE
UPPER-END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 16.0N 102.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.4N 103.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 105.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 17.7N 106.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.7N 110.8W    60 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 20.7N 113.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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