Tropical Depression EIGHT-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS COMPRISED OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A DISORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND
25 KT FROM TAFB...AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS BACK NEAR 18Z SHOWED 30 KT
WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A
COMBINATION OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK AND MODERATE-STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  WEAK
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC SHOULD FIRST STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 20.2N 110.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W    25 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 20.9N 112.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N 113.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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