Tropical Storm FRANK
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TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2010
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 3 6 7 13 23
TROP DEPRESSION 5 15 19 21 18 24 33
TROPICAL STORM 91 76 64 58 55 50 39
HURRICANE 4 8 14 16 20 13 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 7 12 12 16 11 4
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 2 2 2 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 60KT 55KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 5(21) X(21) 1(22)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21)
L CARDENAS 34 1 11(12) 7(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
ACAPULCO 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
P MALDONADO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) 1(27)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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