Hurricane FRANK
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
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HURRICANE FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
1500 UTC WED AUG 25 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 4 15 31
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 7 22 31 34
TROPICAL STORM 28 26 35 54 58 48 33
HURRICANE 72 74 64 38 17 7 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 66 58 45 29 14 7 2
HUR CAT 2 5 13 14 6 3 X X
HUR CAT 3 1 3 4 3 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 75KT 65KT 55KT 45KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 25(67) 4(71) 1(72) X(72)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 4(24) 1(25)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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