Tropical Storm CINDY
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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
CORRECTED TIME IN SECOND PARAGRAPH
CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.
WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT
INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY
REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH
COLDER WATER. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD
WATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 38.3N 49.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 40.7N 45.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 43.8N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 22/1800Z 46.8N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/0600Z 50.0N 27.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER STEWART
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