Hurricane RINA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1800 UTC MON OCT 24 2011
AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 9 21 26
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 11 9 9
TROPICAL STORM 11 5 4 7 24 26 37
HURRICANE 89 95 96 92 57 45 29
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 77 39 21 22 28 28 21
HUR CAT 2 10 39 36 29 17 11 6
HUR CAT 3 2 15 31 30 9 5 2
HUR CAT 4 1 2 6 10 2 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X 1 1 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 90KT 100KT 105KT 100KT 90KT 80KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 11(26) 6(32)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
COZUMEL MX 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 18(32) 27(59) 8(67) 3(70)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 7(31) 2(33)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15)
BELIZE 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 16(27) 18(45) 6(51) 3(54)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 2(18) 1(19)
GUANAJA 34 3 15(18) 22(40) 12(52) 7(59) 4(63) 2(65)
GUANAJA 50 1 2( 3) 8(11) 10(21) 5(26) 1(27) 2(29)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) 2(13)
SAN ANDRES 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 15(29) 13(42) 8(50)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 6(19)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 7(19)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 7(18) 8(26) 9(35)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 5( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 3(20) 4(24) 7(31)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: