Tropical Depression SEVEN-E
ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
0300 UTC WED AUG 17 2011
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 1 4 14
TROP DEPRESSION 23 12 7 3 3 15 35
TROPICAL STORM 76 77 63 45 39 58 45
HURRICANE 2 9 29 52 57 23 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 8 24 37 39 19 5
HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 10 13 4 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 5 1 X
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 75KT 60KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 11(11) 41(52) 12(64) X(64) X(64)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) 1(25) X(25)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) 6(56) X(56)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) X(22)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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