Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
2100 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  40SE  40SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 270SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  45SE  45SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.4N 106.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.1N 105.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  25SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  55SE  55SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  55SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 110SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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