Hurricane JOVA
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HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
0300 UTC TUE OCT 11 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN
BLAS MEXICO...AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF SAN BLAS
TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 106.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 300SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 106.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.3W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.1N 105.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 106.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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