Tropical Depression TEN-E
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 1 1 7 13
TROP DEPRESSION 13 15 13 6 4 15 7
TROPICAL STORM 85 76 68 55 43 48 51
HURRICANE 2 8 17 38 52 29 29
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 7 14 29 37 22 25
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 6 11 5 4
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 4 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 65KT 65KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 6(20)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 7(27)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) 8(30)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 8(26)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 6(25) 2(27)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 7(26)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
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FORECASTER BROWN
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