Tropical Storm DEBBY

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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
 
DEBBY REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...I.E.
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  IN SPITE OF ITS
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE...OBSERVATIONS FROM A C-MAN STATION NEAR
APALACHICOLA AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT.  GIVEN THE MARGINAL
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
MOVES OVER LAND.  DEBBY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IF AND WHEN IT MOVES
OVER LAND AND...BASED ON THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT COULD BECOME A
DEPRESSION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME RANGE IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE GULF STREAM.
 
SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEBBY HAS
TURNED TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 090/3...AS THE STORM IS APPARENTLY BEGINNING TO RESPOND
TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.   SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE TYPICALLY
BEST-PERFORMING GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...ARE NOW TAKING DEBBY
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THESE TWO
MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO RATHER CLOSE AGREEMENT.  THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL IS BY THE FAR THE FASTEST AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 4 DAYS OR LESS.  WHEREAS THE LATTER
SCENARIO SEEMS UNREALISTIC...THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A FASTER TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THAN
THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTIONS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 29.0N  84.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 29.0N  84.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 29.0N  83.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 29.1N  83.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 29.3N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/0600Z 29.9N  80.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 30.5N  78.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 31.5N  76.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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