Hurricane LESLIE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
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HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X 1 6
TROP DEPRESSION X 2 2 2 2 3 16
TROPICAL STORM 47 50 40 36 25 36 54
HURRICANE 53 48 57 62 73 60 24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 49 41 44 40 40 38 20
HUR CAT 2 3 5 10 15 20 15 3
HUR CAT 3 1 2 3 6 11 6 1
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 2 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 70KT 75KT 85KT 80KT 65KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 20(38) 1(39) X(39)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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