Hurricane RAFAEL

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HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  65.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..315NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  65.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  65.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N  63.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.8N  61.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N  56.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.3N  49.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 49.7N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 140SW  40NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 49.3N  28.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.5N  28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N  65.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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