Tropical Storm RAFAEL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 1 1 2 5 11
TROP DEPRESSION 17 11 9 9 7 17 25
TROPICAL STORM 80 76 69 57 51 57 50
HURRICANE 2 12 21 33 40 21 14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 11 18 26 29 18 13
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 5 8 3 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 3 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 55KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 1(37)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PONCE 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
SAN JUAN 34 X 16(16) 8(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
SAN JUAN 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JUAN 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT THOMAS 34 4 52(56) 5(61) X(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT CROIX 34 21 41(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
SAINT CROIX 50 2 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAINT CROIX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 4 19(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 8 5(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
AVES 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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