Tropical Storm RAFAEL

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       2       5      11
TROP DEPRESSION  2       3       4       3       8      20      26
TROPICAL STORM  85      67      52      43      53      56      50
HURRICANE       13      30      44      53      37      19      14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12      26      37      38      29      16      12
HUR CAT 2        1       3       5      11       7       2       1
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       4       2       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    60KT    65KT    70KT    65KT    55KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  10(26)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   7(28)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   5(21)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   1(16)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  33(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PONCE          34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  7   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARBUDA        34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ANTIGUA        34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
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