Tropical Storm RAFAEL
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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 2 4 7
TROP DEPRESSION 2 2 4 6 7 12 20
TROPICAL STORM 84 66 51 52 52 56 54
HURRICANE 14 31 45 42 39 29 19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 13 27 37 32 29 23 17
HUR CAT 2 1 3 6 7 7 4 2
HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 3 2 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 65KT 60KT 55KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 2(31)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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