Tropical Storm GILMA

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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012

COLD WATERS APPEAR TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON GILMA.  WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF AN EYE ARE STILL PRESENT...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AND BECOME ASYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HR.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB.  BASED
ON THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT.

GILMA HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THE PAST FEW HR...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/5. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GILMA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HR UNTIL THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

GILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH THE WEAKENING RATE INCREASING
AFTER 36 HR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GILMA TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 48 HR
AND A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 72 HR AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE EAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 18.4N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 18.9N 119.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 19.7N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 20.3N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 20.8N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 21.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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