Tropical Storm LANE

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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS INDICATED ON
A RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASS. BD-CURVE ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS EXIST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN
EARLIER UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE SUPPORTS INCREASING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND
LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT
LANE COULD STRENGTHEN TO A LOW-END HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH HURRICANE
STRENGTH EXPECTED AROUND THE 24-HOUR PERIOD...AND A WEAKENING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINING TIME PERIODS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. LANE IS NOW MOVING WITHIN THE
MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON
THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. IN THE LATER
FORECAST PERIODS...LANE IS FORECAST TO TURN ABRUPTLY TOWARD THE
WEST AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE TVCE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON SCATTEROMETER
DATA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 13.8N 125.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 14.5N 125.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 15.7N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 17.2N 128.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 18.6N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 20.2N 131.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 20.0N 134.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1200Z 19.3N 138.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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