Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO EL POCITO.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.2N 112.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.7N 112.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.1N 113.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 113.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
 
 
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