Hurricane PAUL

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
 
...PAUL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 114.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
*  AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO EL POCITO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST.  PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAT TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAUL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM FORCE-WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.  AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 77
MPH...124 KM/H.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. 
THE SAME AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990.1 MB...29.24 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
 
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