Tropical Storm CHANTAL
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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 4 20 20 15
TROP DEPRESSION 2 4 6 16 38 34 25
TROPICAL STORM 92 74 62 61 40 43 51
HURRICANE 7 21 31 20 3 3 9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 19 26 16 3 3 8
HUR CAT 2 1 2 4 3 X X 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 60KT 50KT 35KT 35KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) 3(24)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 2(20)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 18(18) 50(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 51(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PONCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAN JUAN 34 X 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 9( 9) 26(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BARBUDA 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ANTIGUA 34 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
GUADELOUPE 34 1 30(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
AVES 34 X 80(80) 3(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
AVES 50 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
AVES 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DOMINICA 34 2 73(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
DOMINICA 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MARTINIQUE 34 9 81(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
MARTINIQUE 50 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
MARTINIQUE 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT LUCIA 34 7 43(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT VINCENT 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BARBADOS 34 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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