Tropical Storm HENRIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013
 
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. 
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 KT FROM SAB...53 KT FROM UW/CIMSS ADT...TO
55 KT FROM TAFB.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  HENRIETTE SHOULD BE TO CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 
REACHING COOLER WATERS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. 

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 8 KT AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT
TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  IN RESPONSE...HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE 36 HOUR
TIME PERIOD...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME.  THE GFS IS
ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AS IT TAKES A STRONGER
AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD.  THE REMAINDER OF 
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A SOMEWHAT WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD.  THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 12.9N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 12.9N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 12.9N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 13.3N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 14.1N 131.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 15.7N 135.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 17.2N 142.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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