Tropical Depression MANUEL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 6 9 13 21 40 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 35 35 30 29 32 43 NA
TROPICAL STORM 63 57 55 52 44 17 NA
HURRICANE X 2 7 6 3 X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 2 7 6 3 X NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 25KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 9(12) 7(19) 2(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 1 11(12) 11(23) 4(27) 5(32) 1(33) X(33)
LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13)
LOS MOCHIS 34 1 8( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 4(25) 2(27) X(27)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CULIACAN 34 4 22(26) 10(36) 3(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43)
CULIACAN 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
CULIACAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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