Hurricane RAYMOND

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HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
 
THE INTENSITY OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW. THE
EYE HAS SHRUNK A LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IS
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE LATEST DVORAK
DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T5.5/102 KT...WHICH SUPPORT
AN INTENSITY OF 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...AN 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO
SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO THAT
ARE NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
RAYMOND DRIFTED NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AGAIN. LITTLE NET MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS
REMAIN WEAK. IN FACT...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE
DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO
BRING RAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE
NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. AROUND 48 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF RAYMOND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS LARGELY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOWER
THAN NORMAL...WITH CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH SPREAD IN THE MODEL
TRACKS.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 16.3N 102.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 16.5N 102.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 16.5N 102.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 16.4N 102.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 15.5N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 15.5N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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