Tropical Storm RAYMOND

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013
 
INFRARED AND FIRST-LIGHT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS RAYMOND TO HAVE
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE PICTURE APPEARS TO DEPICT
DEVELOPING INNER CORE FEATURES.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT AT
ADVISORY TIME...WHICH MATCHES A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
 
DESPITE THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CURRENT POSITION IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE MOTION IS ANALYZED AT 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT...AND
RAYMOND IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.  BY DAY THREE...RAYMOND WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED
BY A DIGGING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THIS COMPLEX TROUGH SHOULD BOTH TURN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE NORTHWARD AS WELL AS INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.  BY DAY FOUR OR
FIVE...RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO RECURVE OFF TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A QUITE LOW LATITUDE...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN PREVIOUSLY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A THREE MODEL...
GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM...BLEND AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.
 
RAYMOND SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...AS IT IS
MOVING OVER WARM 28C WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH RAYMOND FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  BY DAY THREE TO FOUR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWED SHORTLY IN TIME BY A DRIER MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER SSTS.  AROUND DAY FIVE...THESE HOSTILE
FACTORS MAY CAUSE RAYMOND BEGIN TO DECOUPLE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX SEPARATING FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 13.7N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 13.5N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 13.5N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 13.5N 114.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 13.7N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 15.5N 118.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
NNNN