Tropical Storm RAYMOND

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013
 
THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE CURVED BAND WITH THE CENTER TUCKED
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND...WITH CONVECTION RECENTLY ON
THE INCREASE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE NOT YET CHANGED
APPRECIABLY...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 45 KT.  IT IS A
LITTLE BIT OF A MYSTERY WHY RAYMOND HAS NOT INTENSIFIED MUCH...BUT
AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATER...LOW SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD ALSO PORTEND ANOTHER
STRENGTHENING EPISODE...GIVEN INNER CORE FEATURES SEEN ON EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGES.  AFTER THE WEEKEND...DECREASING SSTS AND
INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY INDUCE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.  DESPITE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN
NOTABLY FROM SIX HOURS AGO WITH NO RELIABLE MODELS SHOWING RAYMOND
BECOMING A HURRICANE AGAIN.  GIVEN HOW RELUCTANT RAYMOND HAS BEEN
TO STRENGTHEN...THE NHC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT MODEL TREND...BUT
STAY AT OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS TO PRESERVE
SOME CONTINUITY.
 
RAYMOND CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT.  THE STORM SHOULD
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD SOON
AFTERWARD WHILE IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF A RIDGE.  AFTER
RECURVATURE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...THERE
IS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO A MUCH-WEAKENED
RAYMOND.  A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SLOW EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MOTION IS THE BEST IDEA...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT
RAYMOND WILL LIKELY BE A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME.  THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AT
LONG RANGE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 13.1N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 13.2N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 13.8N 116.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 14.7N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 15.8N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 17.1N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1800Z 17.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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