Hurricane RAYMOND

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HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 28 2013
 
THE EYE OF RAYMOND IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...
HOWEVER A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS IS STILL PRESENT IN A
CDO FEATURE...MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO COME
DOWN A BIT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT.
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE ABOUT 20
KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING RAYMOND...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR...
COOLER SSTS...AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD
TO GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MORE RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO...AND SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND DECOUPLING FROM
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY 48 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. RAYMOND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3
...AND DISSIPATE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.
 
THE CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE
EYE DISAPPEARED...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 350/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. RAYMOND SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES THE CYCLONE. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...AS RAYMOND WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND
THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THAT PERIOD. AFTER 48
HOURS THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...AND THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE MOTION...ASSUMING THAT RAYMOND WILL BE A
SHALLOW SYSTEM MEANDERING IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
THE INITIAL AND FORECAST 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON
DATA FROM ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B PASSES OVER RAYMOND AT 0444Z AND
0538Z...RESPECTIVELY. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 16.0N 116.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 16.7N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 18.2N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 18.6N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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