Tropical Storm RAYMOND

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013
 
DESPITE RECENTLY PRODUCING A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...
RAYMOND IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS SHOW THAT THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG JET STREAK...AND ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS ABOUT 30 KT FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO 3.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE THEREFORE LOWERED TO
45 KT.  THE RAPID WEAKENING THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN...
BUT STRONG SHEAR...COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS
RAYMOND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATING IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS.
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BENEATH THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD...BUT RAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 005/5 KT.  THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD ONLY INDUCE A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE REMNANT LOW IS
THEN LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 18.3N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 18.8N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 19.6N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 19.9N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1200Z 20.0N 115.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1200Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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