Hurricane RAYMOND
ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2013
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 2 2
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 3 8 17
TROPICAL STORM X 1 7 14 45 60 69
HURRICANE 99 99 93 85 51 31 12
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 11 26 37 38 26 11
HUR CAT 2 5 31 34 26 10 4 1
HUR CAT 3 78 46 26 18 3 1 X
HUR CAT 4 16 10 6 4 X X X
HUR CAT 5 1 X 1 X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110KT 105KT 100KT 95KT 80KT 75KT 70KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 3(21) X(21)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 9(19) 3(22) X(22)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 13 31(44) 21(65) 6(71) 2(73) 1(74) X(74)
L CARDENAS 50 1 4( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19)
L CARDENAS 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 26 38(64) 15(79) 2(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 1 6( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ACAPULCO 34 2 9(11) 13(24) 6(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32)
ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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