Hurricane RAYMOND
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HURRICANE RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 2 2 2
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 2 5 9 12 18
TROPICAL STORM 2 17 37 49 61 66 69
HURRICANE 98 83 61 46 28 20 12
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 46 57 43 34 24 17 11
HUR CAT 2 46 19 13 9 4 3 1
HUR CAT 3 6 6 4 3 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 1 X 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85KT 80KT 75KT 70KT 65KT 65KT 65KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
L CARDENAS 34 12 13(25) 4(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
L CARDENAS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 24 6(30) 2(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
ACAPULCO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
P MALDONADO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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