Tropical Storm DOUGLAS

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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Even though Douglas has been devoid of deep convection for about six
hours, a 1716 UTC ASCAT overpass indicated a patch of wind near
tropical-storm strength north-northwest of the center.  Therefore,
the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.  With the
cyclone now over 23-degree C water and embedded in a dry and very
stable air mass, it seems unlikely that any deep convection would
re-develop.  Douglas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
within 12 hours, and the circulation of the decaying cyclone should
gradually spin down during the next couple of days.

The initial motion estimate is 305/05, a little to the left than
before.  A low-level ridge of high pressure west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula should keep the cyclone moving
west-northwestward or northwestward until dissipation in about 3
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 21.8N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 22.4N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1800Z 23.3N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 24.1N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 24.9N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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