Hurricane ISELLE
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014
Iselle continues to show an annular hurricane structure with no
outer banding around a symmetric inner core. Satellite
classifications are about the same as a few hours ago, so the
initial wind speed will remain 110 kt. Little change in intensity
is likely today while a low-shear environment remains near the
hurricane. Iselle is likely to experience some shear on Tuesday,
which should start a more consistent weakening. As the cyclone
moves deeper into the central Pacific basin, a combination of dry
air aloft, westerly shear and marginal SSTs should continue the
weakening process. The latest NHC forecast is somewhat above the
model consensus early on due to the annular structure, but ends up
below the consensus at long range due to the unfavorable
environment described above.
Iselle is moving westward at roughly 8 kt. This general motion
should continue for a day or so with some acceleration after that
time due to a restrengthening of a ridge over the central Pacific.
Iselle should move more to the west-northwest in a few days due to
the cyclone moving around the southwestern portion of the ridge.
Model guidance has not changed much during the past 6 hours, and
the latest NHC forecast is very close to the previous forecast and
the dynamical model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 16.0N 135.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 16.1N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 16.1N 138.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 16.3N 140.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.9N 142.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 18.5N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 20.6N 155.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 22.7N 160.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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